Biofuels helping U.S., Western Hemisphere become energy self sufficient

A year ago, a report by BP noted that the United States’ dependence on foreign oil peaked in 2005 and increased fuel efficiency and the increased use of biofuels like ethanol will further drive down that dependence and the use of oil overall through 2030.

BP came out with an updated report this week and reaffirmed that thinking – but expanded it to say that among energy importing regions, North America, with growth in biofuel supplies and unconventional oil and gas, will turn today’s energy deficit (mainly oil) into a small surplus by 2030.

This does not mean we'll have cut the cord from oil. Instead, that the volume of oil imports in the U.S. would fall significantly, at least in BP's estimation.

Bob Dudley, BP's CEO, said U.S. oil imports have dropped by about one-third since peaking in 2005 and are likely to be half of today’s level in 2030. "The U.S. now produces over 50 percent of the liquid fuel it uses – as opposed to importing the majority, as was the case a few years ago," he said in a speech.

In the report's downloadable booklet (.pdf), BP noted that the import share of oil demand and the volume of oil imports in the U.S. will fall due to rising domestic shale oil production and ethanol displacing crude imports.

When looked at on a hemisphere-basis, the Western Hemisphere may become "almost totally energy self-sufficient" by 2030, as the growth in biofuels production (like ethanol) and oil and gas supplies all expand.

This is how The Guardian reported it: "In a development with enormous geopolitical implications, a large swath of the world taking in North and South America would see its dependence on oil imports from potentially volatile countries in the Middle East and elsewhere disappear, BP said, although Britain and western Europe would still need Gulf supplies."

BP said renewables, including biofuels, will continue to be the fastest growing sources of energy globally, rising at an annual clip of more than 8 percent, much quicker even than natural gas, the fastest growing fossil fuel at about 2 percent a year over the period to 2030.
While BP said biofuels growth will still be "very robust", it did scale it back some due to "more modest expectations of penetration of next generation fuels." (Certainly something that can be worked on.)

The report focuses a great deal on growth markets, especially India and China. In fact, BP predicts that energy demand will soar by 39 percent by 2030 thanks to huge growth in emerging markets like those.

BP said such growth in the rest of the world, principally Asia, will depend increasingly on the Middle East in particular for its growing oil requirements. It said the oil cartel OPEC will grow its market share as a result, reaching 45 percent by 2030 – a level not approached since the 1970s. (Will that have an impact on global stability?)

While oil will continue to lose market share through 2030, BP said the demand for hydrocarbon liquids will still reach 103 million barrels per day in 2030, up by 18 percent from 2010.

This means the world will still need to bring on enough liquids – oil, biofuels and others – to meet that forecast 16 million barrel per day of extra demand by 2030 and replace declining output from existing sources. Where should that focus lie? 

Also see:
Biofuels driving down dependence on foreign oil
Big Oil defends tax breaks, massive profits
How many (other) enviromental groups are in bed with big oil?