Biofuels driving down dependence on foreign oil

Click to expand.

The United States’ dependence on foreign oil peaked in 2005 and increased fuel efficiency and the increased use of biofuels like ethanol will further drive down that dependence and the use of oil overall through 2030, according to a report published in January.

That report doesn’t come from an ethanol or corn organization, however.

It comes from BP. (Yes, that, that and that BP.) Specifically, BP’s Energy Outlook 2030, which you can download here (.pdf).

In the report, BP said biofuels production (largely ethanol) is expected to exceed 6.5 million barrels per day by 2030, up from 1.8 Mb/d in 2010 – contributing 30 percent of global supply growth over the next two decades, and all of the net growth in non-OPEC countries.

Click to expand.

After 2020, BP said, roughly 40 percent of global liquids demand growth will be met by biofuels – up from 13 percent in 2010 – with the U.S. and Europe leading consumption growth. By 2030, this figure approaches 60 percent.

In other words, biofuels and increased efficiencies will make oil the slowest-growing fuel over the next 20 years.

In the United States, the import share of oil and gas will fall to levels not seen since the 1980s, do in part to ethanol, which BP noted displaces oil imports. No, I’m not making that up. Here’s a shot of that bullet point from the report:

Still, global growth in liquids demand (oil, biofuels and other liquids) is projected to rise by 16.5 million barrels per day, exceeding 102 million barrels per day by 2030. That growth comes from rapidly-growing non-OECD economies. Think China, which is set to become the world's largest consumer of oil. Yet it’s more than China. It’s other parts of Asia, the Middle East and South and Central America, too.

Those countries who don’t develop strong biofuels markets will be stuck further under OPEC’s oil thumb. BP estimated that “the importance of OPEC is expected to grow,” with OPEC’s share of global oil production increasing from 40 percent in 2010 to 46 percent in 2030 – a level not reached since 1977.