With 147 bushel yield, Nebraska farmers may harvest 1.34 billion bushels of corn this year

Nebraska	Corn Production
Year	Production	Yield
2003	1,124,200,000	146
2004	1,319,700,000	166
2005	1,270,500,000	154
2006	1,178,000,000	152
2007	1,472,000,000	160
2008	1,393,650,000	163
2009	1,575,300,000	178
2010	1,469,100,000	166
2011	1,536,000,000	160
2012*	1,337,700,000	147
.	*Estimate

Nebraska corn farmers may harvest 1.34 billion bushels of corn this year on 9.1 million acres, for an average yield of 147.0 bushels per acre, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in today's crop production report. The average yield last year was 160 bushels per acre.

If realized, an average yield of 147.0 bushels would be the smallest in the state since the 146 bushels per acre average in 2003 (table). However, production at 1.34 billion would be the sixth-largest on record for the state and comparable to the 1.39 billion bushels produced in 2006.

The harvested acres figure, at 9.1 million acres, is 500,000 less than what USDA estimated in June. It is also 500,000 acres less than what was harvested last year. The drought pushed some acres into silage instead of grain and others may be abandoned altogether.

While there is the possibility Nebraska's average yield could go lower, about 70 percent of the state's corn crop can be irrigated. Some farmers who irrigate estimate they will see yields of 200+ bushels on many of those acres.

Time will tell how well those acres do – and how the harvested dryland corn, which had to rely only on rainfall, shapes up.

Nationally, USDA said the country's corn farmers will produce 10.78 billion bushels on 87.36 million harvested acres, resulting in an average yield of 123.4 bushels per acre. This is down 13 percent from last year and the lowest since 2006. Yields, if realized, would be the lowest since 1995.

Harvested acres were reduced 1.5 million acres from the July estimate - but are still 3.7 million more than last year because farmers this year, responding to demand, planted the most acres in the United States since 1937.

As for the supply/demand picture, a summary below, provided by Kelly Brunkhorst at the Nebraska Corn Board, shows the extent of the changes from July to August, and compares the numbers to last year and 2010-11.

Considering the scope and breadth of the drought and corresponding heat this summer, it's really pretty amazing that the crop, if realized, will still be the eighth largest on record.

Garry Niemeyer, president of the National Corn Growers Association, noted that without advanced seed technology, including biotechnology and genetics that help plants use water more efficiently and better tolerate heat and other drought conditions, production losses may have been  much greater.
 
We won't know the full extent of the crop, of course, later this fall during harvest. 

Click for a larger image.

Globally, USDA cut total grain output 2.9 percent, total grain supply 2.1 percent and grain ending stocks 4.3 percent. However, 2012-13 global grain production may still be the second-largest on record.