November 10, 2008

Corn crop remains at 12.0 billion bushels

The U.S. Department of Agriculture revised its crop production numbers today - estimating the 2008-09 corn crop at 12.0 billion bushels, down a smidgen from last month's report, as yield prospects were reduced by 0.1 bushels per acre to 153.8. The figure is also marginally below analysts' estimates.

Although reduced marginally, that yield figure is still the second largest on record, and the crop itself also remains the second largest.

In Nebraska, USDA estimated the crop at 1.38 billion bushels with an average yield of 161 bushels per acre, essentially unchanged from last month. (Last year's crop was 1.47 billion bushels with a yield of 160.)

In its supply and demand report, USDA reduced export expectations 50 million bushels to 1.9 billion, left corn for ethanol use unchanged at 4.0 billion and corn for feed use unchanged at 5.3 billion. That leaves ending stocks at a healthy 1.12 billion, up a bit from last month.

USDA then cut a quarter off each end of the expected average farm price - reducing it to $4.00-4.80. When combined with last month's 80-cent cut, that means average prices have dropped $1.05 since September. With a 12.0 billion bushel crop, that equates to a $12.6 billion loss in value.

The image above is from a Nebraska corn grower and the Nebraska Corn Board.

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