Beef cow herd to turn around?

It appears that the pieces are all in place to finally turn around the U.S. beef cow herd, according to a recent report from The Daily Livestock Report.  There are a number of important pieces but two are critical:

• Strong calf prices.

In the chart to the right, calf prices are bumping into record levels once again as stocker operations look to place cattle on wheat pasture and feedlots try to secure their share of the tight calf supply.

The supply of cattle outside of feedlots was estimated to be slightly larger last January 1 but much of that 0.6% increase was likely due to delayed placements due to high feed costs. A beef cow herd that was 2.9% smaller, yr/yr, on January 1 has almost certainly produced about that many fewer calves this year and ongoing heifer retention has tightened things even more. No wonder calf — and feeder — prices are this high.

• Plentiful grass.

NOAA’s U.S. Drought Monitor map for November 26 shows only 13.8% of the U.S. having drought conditions rated as severe or worse. That compares to 34.7% one year ago and 35.2% on January 1, 2013. Just three months ago (late August), nearly 30% of the U.S. was in droughts rated as sever and worse. It is clear that some cow-calf areas (western Kansas, Nebraska, California) are still quite dry but much of the critical cow-calf country
from Texas northward through Missouri and eastward all the way to Florida are in pretty good shape. The Livestock Marketing Information Center reports that as of October 27, the date of USDA’s last crop and pasture conditions ratings for 2013, states with only 15.1% of the nation’s beef cow herd had 40% of their acres rated in either poor or very poor condition. One year ago that number was an astonishing 70.8%. States with nearly 48% of the nation’s beef cows had at least 40% of their acres rated in good or excellent conditions this year. That number was only 21% one year ago. Improved pasture conditions go hand in hand with lower grain and protein supplement costs to leave production
costs significantly lower than last year.

What cow-calf operators want to do from a economic standpoint and what Mother Nature allows them to do are frequently two different things — but not this year. A strong profit incentive and sufficient resources are driving beef herd expansion!

Field Notes Meets Nebraska Farmer, Andy Jobman

The National Corn Growers Association has launched its third season of Field Notes, a series that takes readers behind the farm gate to follow the year in the life of American farm families. While these growers come from diverse geographic areas and run unique operations, they share a common love for U.S. agriculture and the basic values that underpin life in farming communities.

Today, Field Notes meets Andy Jobman, who farms with his family in central Nebraska. In addition to growing a wide variety of crops, including corn for chip production, and ranching, Jobman also helps other farmers through his work as a crop consultant.

Through his crop consulting work, Jobman plays a role in agriculture across his area by helping other farmers spot potential problems and improve the efficiency of their input use. Stressing that the role he plays is collaborative, he explains how a dialogue informed by agronomic knowledge and awareness of the newest advancements in production practices can help farmers grow more while using inputs in a targeted manner.

“By carefully monitoring fields all season, we are often able to catch problems and address them in a quick, targeted fashion,” he explained. “One field may need to be sprayed for a certain pest, but another field on the same farm may not have an issue. Similarly, some fields may need more fertilizer or a different formulation than others. It is all about taking in all the possible information together and targeting every choice to get the very best result.”

Jobman explained that, while much of Nebraska saw drought conditions last year, many farmers around him did see excellent yields due to irrigation. This year, a winter is holding on in his area with snow on the ground when many would normally be applying fertilizer. To listen to the full interview, click here.

Stay tuned over the coming weeks as Field Notes follows the growers across the nation who have opened their farms, families and communities up this year and meet the true faces of modern American agriculture.

Nebraska's soil moisture reserve gone, expert says

Nebraska's reserve of soil moisture is gone, compounding the continuing bad news about Nebraska's drought, experts said.

Mark Svoboda, of the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln told a task force Monday that the reserve was amassed during several years of relatively generous rainfall.

But, Svoboda said, "there is no full moisture reserve to tap into this year."

A U.S. Department of Agriculture survey report March said topsoil moisture for farm fields throughout the state was rated 29 percent short or very short this far into March. Subsoil moisture was rated 97 percent short or very short. The drought center said that as of last week 96 percent of the state remained in extreme or exceptional drought.

At the same meeting of the state's Climate Assessment and Response Committee, state climatologist Al Dutcher said some improvement may be ahead because the meetings between cold air to the north and warm air to the south hold potential.

"As systems continue their trek on a weekly basis, we expect them to cross the border into Nebraska, and we'll see some uptick in moisture," Dutcher said.

Rainfall is crucial over the next two months for people planting corn and soybeans and for the recovery of grazing areas. Typically, Dutcher said, "once we get into the second week of May, we've reached our peak in soil moisture, and we start to decline from there."

The drought harmed several Nebraska crops last year. Corn production, for example, was down 16 percent from 2011 figures, according to a 2012 U.S. Department of Agriculture report.

The USDA's March survey report for Nebraska farmers said 61 percent of the wheat was rated poor or very poor. That compares with 4 percent rated poor or very poor last year at this time, before the drought took hold.

Plan for continued drought?

We don’t like to think about it, but recent conference speakers have warned farmers in the western Corn Belt and Plains states that dry conditions are likely to continue this spring and summer.

Kyle Tapley, senior agricultural meteorologist for MDA Weather Services spoke at the Intl FCStone Agricultural and Economic Outlook Meeting in Las Vegas recently, according to AgWeb. "Once drought is in place, it can be self-sustaining and perpetuating," he says. "We’ve been in a very persistent pattern through the winter to date."

Tapley also looked back at weather records over the last 60 years, looking at droughts in 1953, 1955, 1970, 1983 and 1988. Only the 1988 drought was similar in scale and intensity, but all of those droughts tended to linger into the next year. The only saving grace is that dryness was not as extreme in the following summer, he says.

El Nino and La Nina ocean temperatures are also in a neutral phase this year, so they are not expected to be a big driver of weather patterns and rain events.

Thankfully, large snow dumps this past week have helped, but have not been a “drought buster” as some have been forecasting.

State climatologist, Al Dutcher, recently gave an update at the Women in Ag conference and shared that he is ”not overly optimistic, but at least I’m optimistic from the standpoint that I’m seeing features in the atmosphere that might give us the ability to generate some more—better—spring storm activity than we’ve been accustomed to over this last 15-month period.”

Despite the weather experts’ forecasts, the USDA expects a full recovery, estimating that U.S. farmers are likely to produce a record 14.53 billion bushels of corn and a record 3.405 billion bushels of soybeans in 2013.

Snow Dancing

Nebraska was hit with its second snow storm of the winter the end of January causing snow days for many and traffic delays for all. While the snow brought an inconvenience, Nebraska is still many inches of precipitation behind for most years. Leading to the looming question, how will the continued lack of snow and rain impact the ongoing drought?

With record lows for precipitation and highs for temperatures, 2012 took the record for both in the 12-year U.S. Drought Monitor data history. Nebraska was the epicenter of the drought this summer, and drought conditions continue to worsen in the beginning of 2013. As you can see in the maps below, at this time last year only a small section of moderate drought conditions existed in Nebraska. However, this year the entire state is in exceptional or extreme drought.

Before/after effects of the drought in one year:

Nebraska’s family farmers are using innovation to ensure they meet growing global demand, while protecting and preserving precious natural recourses we all depend upon, such as water, by using:

• Conservation tillage – Many farmers don’t use plows any more, as new tillage practices focus on disturbing the soil as little as possible. This cuts back on the number of trips across the field saving fuel and reducing soil compaction. Also, leaving residue such as cornstalks in the field conserves soil moisture and reduces the amount of fertilizer, nutrient and irrigation required to grow a healthy crop. Field residue also prevents soil run off when snow melts.
• Advanced seed technology – Seed companies have led the charge to develop seed that is resistant to drought
• Irrigation research – Through soil moisture monitoring, Nebraska farmers are working to cut back on the water they use without affecting yields
• Precision technology – Modern tractors and machinery are equipped with GPS to eliminate overlaps in planting and fertilizer application. Satellite mapping ensures farmers apply just the right amount of nutrients in the right place.

Energy required to produce a bushel of corn over the past three decades has decreased by 37%

While the technology farmers are using helps them to be more environmentally responsible, efficient, and accurate, they still need certain levels of moisture to produce a yield required by a growing and hungry population.

So, here’s to rain dancing…or snow dancing!

*Blog post reposted from the Farm Meets Fork blog by Nebraska Farm Bureau

Another dry summer? Farmers are eternal optimists.

Tim Scheer and Curt Friesen, chair and vice chair, respectively, of the Nebraska Corn Board took a media tour last week to talk about the drought, Farm Bill, RFS and the impact of Nebraska’s corn industry to the state economy.

At Fox 42 in Omaha, Tim and Curt specifically talked detail of the on-going drought.

FOX 42: Omaha News, Sports and Weather; kptm.com |

Ask farmers about last year's crop and they could answer it in one word, dry. With record lows for precipitation, many farmers ended up losing their crops and a profit.

Farmer, Phil Kempcke said, "This was a tough one, you know, about eight weeks without any rain and about six weeks of 100 degree temps."

Kempcke is hoping this year won't be as dry, but with the lack of moisture this winter, some drought experts are saying farmers need more rain.

"We are still at a pretty big deficit," Kempcke said.

Tim and Curt are telling farmers this year could be just as bad as last if there isn't rain soon.

"The amount of moisture we have had now really makes no difference, it is the spring rains that are going to determine whether or not we are going to come out of the drought," Friesen said.

"We are still hoping we will get moisture this year, but we could be wrong," Scheer said.

The Nebraska Corn Board tells Fox 42 they are hoping the U.S. Congress is able to pass the Farm Bill to extend relief to farmers for the next five years.